Most small businesses that close were not unprofitable. They ran out of cash while waiting for money they were owed — a government purchase order paid 60 days late, a retailer settling on consignment, a corporate client stretching terms. A simple forecast, updated every week, is enough to see that coming while you still have time to act.
What goes on the page
Across the top, the next 13 weeks. Down the side, three blocks: cash coming in, cash going out, and the running balance at the end of each week. Keep it to one page and in Pula, so you actually update it. A spreadsheet is fine.
Cash in
List expected receipts in the week you realistically expect the money to arrive, not the week you invoiced. If a customer normally pays 30 days after delivery, put it 30 days out. If you supply Government or a large retailer, be honest about how long they actually take. Include grant tranches, loan drawdowns and owner contributions here too.
Cash out
Rent, salaries and wages, stock and raw materials, transport and fuel, airtime and data, loan repayments. Add the irregular payments that catch businesses out: quarterly BURS payments, the annual CIPA renewal, trading-licence renewals, insurance, and any VAT you will owe. Put each one in the week it actually falls due.
The number that matters
The running balance. The first week it turns negative is your deadline. Once you can see that date — ideally four to six weeks ahead — you have options: bring a payment forward with a discount for early settlement, delay a non-urgent outflow, chase an overdue invoice, or arrange short-term finance before you are desperate. Found on the day, the same problem has no good options.
Make it a habit
Update it the same time every week — Monday morning works for most people — and roll a new week onto the end so you always have 13 weeks of visibility. Reconcile it against your bank and mobile-money statements so the opening balance is real.
IED’s Business Planning for Entrepreneurs and Bookkeeping for Entrepreneurs courses build this forecast with you using your own numbers.
